CB 399: Public Health 101: Introduction to Modeling Infectious Disease Summer 2014

Public Health 101: Introduction to Modeling Infectious Disease

Course Instructors: Lauren Childs, PhD, Patrick Mitchell, Daniel Larremore, PhD, Hsiao-Han Chang, PhD, Colin Worby, PhD

Infectious disease is an area where mathematical models can play an important role in understanding transmission dynamics and predicting the impact of intervention programs. They are also valuable in identifying areas where further empirical work is necessary. This course provides an introduction to modeling infectious disease by describing some of the most ubiquitous model types and providing context on how to interpret them. Participants will have the opportunity to investigate a basic model to gain understanding of the process of mathematical modeling and will be challenged to envision how mathematical models could enhance their own work.

Outline

Session I 

History of modeling – Lauren M. Childs, Ph.D.

  • “All models are wrong, but some are useful
  • Examples of important models in infectious disease (i.e. Ross-Macdonald model)
  • Research question drives the model

Introduction to modeling – Patrick Mitchell

  • Basic compartmental models (i.e. SIR: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)
  • Calculation of basic reproduction number, R0

Network models – Daniel Larremore, Ph.D.

  • Networks and community structures therein
  • Untangling the var genes of P. falciparum using network models

Population-genetic models – Hsiao-Han Chang, Ph.D.

  • Introduction to population genetics (i.e. Wright-Fisher model, selection coefficient)
  • Modifying population-genetic models for malaria

Statistical modeling – Colin Worby, Ph.D.

  • Background of statistical models
  • Determining transmission chains in bacteria

Additional modeling frameworks – Lauren M. Childs, Ph.D.

  • Individual-based models
  • Model comparison
  • Concluding remarks

Homework: Install R studio (free) and go through short provided tutorial on how to use R. Read provided background material for session II.

SESSION II

Hours 1-2: Group work in R studio

  • Introductory code for will be provided.
  • Modify parameters (or code) to investigate the model.
  • Prepare short presentation for Hour 3.

Hour 3: Three 15-minute presentations (one from each group)

  • Description of research question.
  • Results from exploration in hours 1-2
  • Potential next steps for the model.

Homework: One page write-up of proposed research question and plan of study including incorporation of mathematical modeling. Be sure to address the goal of the modeling component.

Schedule:

First Session: Thursday, July 24, 2014, 1:30pm-4:30pm
Location: TMEC 227

Second Session: Thursday, July 31, 2014, 1:30pm-4:20pm
Location: FXB G13

DROP DEADLINE: Thursday, July 17, 2014

 

AUDITORS (Post-Docs, Faculty, or Staff) DO NOT NEED TO SIGN UP TO ATTEND THE 1st SESSION.  PLEASE DO NOT ENROLL.